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On Volatility and Risk
Author : Sam Vaknin
Volatility is considered the most accurate measure of risk and, by extension, of return, its flip side. The higher the volatility, the higher the risk - and the reward. That volatility increases in the transition from bull to bear markets seems to support this pet theory. But how to account for surging volatility in plummeting bourses? At the depths of the bear phase, volatility and risk increase while returns evaporate - even taking short-sellin...
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The Friendly Trend - Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis
Author : Sam Vaknin
The authors of a paper published by NBER on March 2000 and titled "The Foundations of Technical Analysis" - Andrew Lo, Harry Mamaysky, and Jiang Wang - claim that: "Technical analysis, also known as 'charting', has been part of financial practice for many decades, but this discipline has not received the same level of academic scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches such as fundamental analysis. One of the main obstacles is t...
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Dealing With Market Corrections: Ten Do’s and Don'ts
Author : Steve Selengut
A correction is a beautiful thing, simply the flip side of a rally, big or small. Theoretically, even technically I'm told, corrections adjust equity prices to their actual value or “support levels”. In reality, it’s much easier than that. Prices go down because of speculator reactions to expectations of news, speculator reactions to actual news, and investor profit taking. The two former "becauses" are more potent than ever before because there ...
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Wall Street, October 1929
Author : Sam Vaknin
Claud Cockburn, writing for the "Times of London" from New-York, described the irrational exuberance that gripped the nation just prior to the Great Depression. As Europe wallowed in post-war malaise, America seemed to have discovered a new economy, the secret of uninterrupted growth and prosperity, the fount of transforming technology: "The atmosphere of the great boom was savagely exciting, but there were times when a person with my European...
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You buy and price falls,you sell and price rises.
Author : Jigar
One say's "I bought "XYZ Company" at Rs.2200 and immediately after I bought the stock price dropped to Rs.2000." I feel sad. Another comes with a different version "I sold "XYZ Company" at Rs.2000 and it went up to Rs.2400 same evening" I made an imaginary loss of Rs.400 per share. Solution: You can buy more shares @ Rs.2000 and reduce your overall buying cost. This has to be done only if believe in the fundamentals,management and the futur...
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Beyond the Brink
Author : Pleeds
Penny stocks represent an excellent investment vehicle for producing gains, while the risks are equally as high. When you finally decide to get involved in penny stocks, to go 'Beyond the Brink,' there are some things you need to know. In fact, whether you have been burned by penny stocks in the past, or have never even invested, the following theories are designed to give you an instant and significant advantage over all those inexperienced ...
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How to Use Annual Report
Author : Hari Wibowo
There are many steps in calculating the fair value of a company. However, before we even do that, it is imperative to know how a company earns its profit. Does it do that by selling to consumers? licensing its technology to other companies? or extracting natural resources from the ground? The sensible way to do it is by reading the company's annual report. What is an annual report? Annual report is yearly publication by public companies to bet...
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Fair Value of A Common Stock
Author : Hari Wibowo
A lot of discussions have been devoted towards finding fair value of an investment. The goal of every investors is to find undervalued investment and sell it when it reaches fair value. Admittedly, this is the hardest part of investing. So, what is fair value? Fair value is a point where the price of an investment reflect its earning power. Fair value is relative and it depends on other factors beyond the investors' control. In here, we will d...
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Quelling Your Investment Fear
Author : Hari Wibowo
Investing can be dangerous yet profitable endeavor. Many people have been burnt and decide not to ever invest again. This is the primary fear for investing in anything. They may give you excuse such as 'I don't have enough money' or 'I don't know where to invest'. But the number one fear is always the fear of losing money. If a novice investor knows that he won't lose money, he must have used all means necessary (such as loan) to buy as much inve...
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Your Prey for 2006
Author : Hari Wibowo
As 2005 comes to an end, investors celebrate the coming new year and bring new expectation with it. As investors, we try to sell our losing investment before the year ends and sell our winning investments after the new year. This is to receive the benefit of early tax deduction and deferring our tax liability. Either way, after selling your investment, you have some spare cash to invest. Therefore, you would need some idea on where to invest your...
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